New on-chain data suggests that the chances of Bitcoin surpassing the $100k milestone have jumped to 45%, even with its dip in the past days.
Betting big
Almost half of Bitcoin options traders are feeling optimistic about a six-figure price by the end of 2024, but some are even daring to dream of a surge all the way to $150,000, despite Bitcoin just pulled back to around $90,000.
Nick Forster from DeFi protocol, shared that the probability of BTC exceeding $100,000 has increased from 34% last week.
Plus, there’s now a 4% chance it could hit that lofty $150,000. That would be quite epic Xmas gift!
What the data says
Forster noted that there’s a strong demand for Bitcoin options, particularly call options, which are bets that the price will rise.
This indicates a strong appetite in the market for both potential gains and some downside protection.
About 41% of contracts traded were calls, while only 38% were puts, meaning traders are more bullish than bearish right now.
Looking ahead, the data suggests that by the end of 2024, Bitcoin has a 68% chance of either retracing to around $81,493 or climbing up to $115,579.
There’s only a slim 5% chance it could drop below $70,000, landing at around $68,429, or soar as high as $137,645.
Hodl on, hold on
As always, not everyone is convinced that smooth sailing lies ahead. Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant cautioned that even during a parabolic bull run, Bitcoin can experience pullbacks of up to 30%.
He pointed out that similar corrections happened during the 2021 cycle when Bitcoin skyrocketed from $17,000 to $64,000.
“This isn’t a call for a correction—just manage your risk and avoid panic selling at local bottoms. We’re in a bull market.”
Well-known crypto analyst PlanC expressed his contentment with Bitcoin consolidating in the $90s range.
“It’s looking more and more likely that we could actually spend some time consolidating in the 90s. If that’s the case, it would be the best-case scenario for the longevity of this bull market.”
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