Polymarket banhammer hit US users

-

Donald Trump currently has a 63.7% chance of winning the US presidential election per Polymarket, but voter polls tell a different story.

Vote4President!

Polymarket is now making sure that users placing large bets on the election are located outside the United States, since US users aren’t allowed on the platform.

A report from Bloomberg revealed that Polymarket is reviewing the details of its users, especially those making big wagers, to comply with its rules.

Even though Polymarket has measures to block US users from accessing its site, there are concerns that some may be getting around these restrictions using VPNs.

This has prompted the platform to take a closer look at who is betting. The scrutiny comes amid speculation that a few big players, known as whales, are influencing the betting odds in favor of Trump for the upcoming election.

Who is the fastest horse?

So far, nearly $2.3 billion has been wagered in Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market, which currently shows Trump leading with 63.7% compared to Vice President Kamala Harris at 36.2%.

Polymarket
Polymarket

One particular whale, known as Fredi9999, has drawn attention for placing over $20 million on Republican outcomes.

Trump also leads Harris on another prediction platform called Kalshi, where he holds a 60% chance.

Despite this, Trump’s strong showing in crypto prediction markets isn’t matching up with most voter polls. For example, a new Reuters poll shows Harris ahead with 46% compared to Trump’s 43%.

In response to questions about Polymarket’s accuracy, Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour told that their results reflect genuine betting activity and aren’t influenced by manipulation.

He also noted that the average bet size for Harris is actually larger than for Trump—$85 compared to $58.

Global bets

Billionaire Mark Cuban, an investor in Polymarket, pointed out that most of the bets coming into the platform are from overseas.

He believes this means they don’t truly represent what eligible voters think.

“From all indications, most of the money coming into Polymarket is foreign money, so I don’t think it’s an indication of anything.”

It’s worth noting that back in January 2022, Polymarket reached a $1.4 million settlement with US regulators for offering over 900 event-based betting markets without proper registration.

Have you read it yet? No green light for crypto ETFs in Japan

LATEST POSTS

Ethereum is centralized and pre-mined?

Well, probably yes. PlanB, the guy who made waves with his Stock-to-Flow model for Bitcoin, sitting at the head of the crypto table, and this...

PumpSwap reached the $3.45 billion milestone

You wake up, pour yourself a cup of coffee, open your newsfeed, and suddenly, PumpSwap just dropped a $3.45 billion bombshell on the dex sector....

MEXC just launched the $30 million IgniteX project

You ever hear about a little thing called IgniteX? No? It’s new. MEXC Ventures just dropped $30 million on the table, and they ain’t playing...

Schwab is going all in on crypto?

Let me tell you a not-so-average Wall Street bedtime story. Charles Schwab, the buttoned-up, old-school titan of finance is about to wade knee-deep into the...

Most Popular

Guest posts