BlackRock’s Rachel Aguirre shared the company’s approach to launching a Solana ETF, focusing on three key principles, like meeting client needs, defining the investment thesis, and evaluating if Solana is suitable for ETF packaging in the first place.
Regulatory hurdles, and there are quite a few
The main obstacle is regulatory uncertainty, because the U.S. SEC might classify Solana as a security, unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are considered commodities.
This classification could impact the approval process. Samara Cohen from BlackRock previously mentioned that technical challenges, liquidity issues, and market manipulation concerns were also major hurdles, so right now it’s like trying to solve a puzzle with missing pieces.
Optimism amidst challenges
Despite these challenges, many analysts remain optimistic, for example, Bloomberg’s James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas give Solana ETFs a 70% chance of approval, though they acknowledge that the security classification could indeed complicate things.
JPMorgan noted that rejections of other ETF applications by the SEC haven’t helped either.
Still, some experts believe that Solana ETFs might still get approved by the end of 2025. If they do, it could bring in $2.7 billion to $5.2 billion in the first few months.
The classification debate is the real deal
The classification of Solana is the elephant in the room, and Vivian Fang from Indiana University suggests that the new SEC leadership might be more crypto-friendly, but this doesn’t guarantee approval.
The burden is on ETF issuers to prove Solana isn’t a security, and it’s a complex dance between regulators and issuers, with the outcome still uncertain.
So the stakes are high. If approved, these ETFs could bring huge investment into the Solana ecosystem. But until then, we’re left wondering if this will ever become a reality.
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