Ethereum’s price might just skyrocket to $12,000 this year, and it’s all thanks to a combination of factors, including the upcoming Pectra upgrade and a pro-crypto vibe from Donald Trump’s presidency.
Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at the options DeFi protocol Derive thinks there’s a big chance.
Alignment
Dawson shared that if Ethereum successfully rolls out its Pectra update and enjoys a regulatory-friendly environment under Trump, we could see Ether jump 257% from its current price of about $3,361.
He told that this bullish scenario could see Ether reaching that $12K level by the end of the year.
The much-anticipated Pectra upgrade is set to launch in the first quarter of 2025 and wants to boost Ethereum’s efficiency and scalability.
Dawson emphasizes that for Ether to truly take off, it needs broader adoption, think real-world assets, more capital flowing into ETFs, and increased utility in hot sectors like decentralized physical infrastructure networks and AI agents.
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New utility?
Matt Hougan from Bitwise pointed out that many AI agents are currently operating on Ethereum and its layer-2 scaling network, Base. Dawson believes that as layer-2 solutions improve interoperability, they could pave the way for really big gains in Ether’s value.
While Ether has been hanging around $3,500 since late December, Dawson notes that the options market is telling a different story.
There’s a noticeable tilt toward call options on Derive.xyz, about 250% more calls than puts, which could means that traders are feeling optimistic and looking for upside potential.
There’s still competition
But before one get too excited, Dawson does caution that there’s a bearish scenario lurking around, because if the spot Ether ETF fails to attract institutional interest, for example potentially losing ground to a successful Solana ETF, Ether could drop below $2,000 easily.
Interestingly, while the number of long-term Ether holders has been steadily increasing throughout 2024, Bitcoin holders have seen a decline in confidence over the past year.
Based on the numbers, long-term Ether holders rose from 59% in January to 75% by year-end.
