Donald Trump currently has a 63.7% chance of winning the US presidential election per Polymarket, but voter polls tell a different story.
Vote4President!
Polymarket is now making sure that users placing large bets on the election are located outside the United States, since US users aren’t allowed on the platform.
A report from Bloomberg revealed that Polymarket is reviewing the details of its users, especially those making big wagers, to comply with its rules.
Even though Polymarket has measures to block US users from accessing its site, there are concerns that some may be getting around these restrictions using VPNs.
This has prompted the platform to take a closer look at who is betting. The scrutiny comes amid speculation that a few big players, known as whales, are influencing the betting odds in favor of Trump for the upcoming election.
Who is the fastest horse?
So far, nearly $2.3 billion has been wagered in Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market, which currently shows Trump leading with 63.7% compared to Vice President Kamala Harris at 36.2%.
One particular whale, known as Fredi9999, has drawn attention for placing over $20 million on Republican outcomes.
A long-winded and winding update on Fredi9999 — the person or entity — who is singlehandedly rocketing up the price of Trump on prediction markets around the world.
Spoiler alert: I managed to make contact with him, I think, and he blocked me after a few minutes. Sensitive… pic.twitter.com/HYlZpUfk2k
— Domer (@Domahhhh) October 16, 2024
Trump also leads Harris on another prediction platform called Kalshi, where he holds a 60% chance.
Despite this, Trump’s strong showing in crypto prediction markets isn’t matching up with most voter polls. For example, a new Reuters poll shows Harris ahead with 46% compared to Trump’s 43%.
In response to questions about Polymarket’s accuracy, Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour told that their results reflect genuine betting activity and aren’t influenced by manipulation.
He also noted that the average bet size for Harris is actually larger than for Trump—$85 compared to $58.
Global bets
Billionaire Mark Cuban, an investor in Polymarket, pointed out that most of the bets coming into the platform are from overseas.
He believes this means they don’t truly represent what eligible voters think.
“From all indications, most of the money coming into Polymarket is foreign money, so I don’t think it’s an indication of anything.”
It’s worth noting that back in January 2022, Polymarket reached a $1.4 million settlement with US regulators for offering over 900 event-based betting markets without proper registration.
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